More Growth - consumer insight, brand positioning, growth strategy

How well connected are we with the real world?

When I listen to the great and good in the news, there does seem to be mounting evidence of a surreal detachment from the real world. We are facing a harsh reality that the nation and businesses have some big debts to pay back. However

 

Royalty:  Prince Andrew hiring private planes at tax payers expense to go to Davos to the world economic forum  .
 
Civil servants:  Mark Thompson's private flights courtesy of the Licence payer, because it was terribly important he dashed home from his holiday to sort out a staff problem.
 
Stephen Hester's  £9.6m package for managing a business wholly underwritten by the tax payer and is guaranteed it cannot fail.
 
Politicians:  Duck houses moat cleaning, phantom mortgages etc. But now I have heard MP's arguing that their bullet proof pensions are perfectly reasonable and the problem is not that their pensions are too generous but that the private sector is at fault and is too mean for withdrawing final salary pensions.

 

Ministers and opposition politicians talking as if they can continue to spend money and not realising that the electorate knows an adjustment is needed.  Gordon Brown's slip up that we face zero percent growth in spending is an illustration of the psychological dilemma.

 

Business Leaders:  I heard three eminent business leaders on Evan Davis Radio 4 slot profess, without blinking or stuttering, that when they meet staff (sorry colleagues!) they have perfectly normal discussion with them. They argued that they always find out exactly what the staff thinks because staff (sorry colleagues) do not tailor the response to impress the boss. (You would never think of doing such a thing!)
How can we stay in touch with reality? .
   

You know this is important for you to make the right decisions for your business. If you do not, you will lose touch with customers and they will drift away and the business will flounder. This is about more than being customer driven, it is about being realistic regarding what you try to accomplish and about the kind of role and relationship you have with your customers.
 
The most successful leaders manage to keep in touch with this, they do it through good instincts (Margaret Thatcher), good research (Tony Blair), talking with people (David Cameron).
 
Less successful leaders miss the beat, (Gordon Brown) start paying too much attention to what their immediate direct reports are telling them (Neil Kinnock, John Major, Ian Duncan Smith) and do not reach out to the wider market or audience.
 
This is not just about market research and talking to customers it is about having wider antennae by using multiple sources.
 
We need to find the same thing for our businesses and to understand customers. What is available to us to ensure we stay realistic? Here are 3 thoughts to get started.
 
1. Seek to understand what customers have done and why Do not take too much notice of they say they will do. Future behaviour is hard to predict. Funnily enough customers cannot predict their own behaviour. But it is possible to ask them and understand their current needs and frustrations.
 
2. Find ways to track what people are saying about your business. Get away from the bubble in your head office. Find out what they say behind your back (being British we are too polite to tell you to your face). If you are high profile enough then social media networks provide feedback on this. It is time consuming and expensive to track but it is real and â€oewith the beat”. This seems a more practical use of social media than trying to insert ads into conversations between friends.
 
A good example of how customers do not want to say things to your face comes to me from conversations with John Yates Smith a Val d'Isere chalet operator (YSE). He is amazed at how often when something goes wrong in the chalet (lights, fridge hot water etc), that customers keep quiet about it all week, then go home, moan to their friends, then even write a letter of complaint. But they do not tell him whilst they are there when he could fix it.
 
Any more thoughts on how to stay in touch with customers and keep our antennae switched on would be very welcome.  Please post comments on this blog.

What can we learn from Marketing Society Award winners?

I initially hesitated to use this title, since I am acutely aware of the conventional wisdom that winning an award can presage a period of poor results.  "Pride comes before a fall" and all that. 

 

However, this year all the Marketing Society Award winners seem to have followed one of the golden rules for success.  In order to be successful they did not just unearth a powerful new insight from customers and come up with a new idea, but they also had to engage with the rest of the business. 

 

They all work XF (cross functionally) and maybe even set up XF teams.

 

Here are a selection of the award winners.

 

Sainsburys - feed the family for a fiver
The O2  - venue launch
Hovis  - re invigoration
UPS - The UPS widget
Cadbury - Bring back Wispa
McDonalds - Feel proud to work at McDonalds
More Than - Personal Customer Manager

 

See all the winners click here

 

All of these initiatives require project team leaders who inspire and mobilise their peers in other functions (such as commercial, operations, merchandisers, product development, finance, and HR) to get behind the ideas and make them work. 

 

How can marketers do this?  In searching for wisdom on this I had a look at Tom Peters material.  He has made it his mission to promote the idea of cross functional co-operation and understand how to make it work.  He has published this paper. 

 

"XF-50" 50 ways to enhance cross functional effectiveness and deliver speed, service excellence and value added customer solutions. 

 

Click here to download the paper from Tom Peters

 

Now 50 is a lot of tips to take in and deal with, so we pulled off our own favourites and reworked them into a top 10.  Here they are: 

 

Top tips for marketers on customer led project teams 

 

How to harness powerful customer insights and create a plan for growth. 

 

These are not necessarily the whole answer but they do offer a refreshing challenge to the ways many of us have worked in the past.  

1. Jaw Jaw Jaw - Talk XF co-operation value added at every opportunity.  Become a relentless bore.  Be happy to be in meetings, meetings are real work that get things done.
    
2. Explain to everyone that WE make it work or not.  Its not THEM.  The outside world is not the problem.  The enemy is us.
    
3. Put everything on the internal web.  This helps - a lot. ("Everything" = Big word).  Provide open access to the data, information, ideas, all available to all, transparency, beyond a level that is sensible.
    
4. All functions are created equal.  All functions contribute equally.  All=All
    
5. Use the words, "partner", "team" and "us" until we want to barf.  (Words matter a lot)
    
6. Never blame other parts of the organisation for screw ups.  Blaming is an automatic firing offense.
    
7. Get  'em out with the customer.  Rarely does the accountant or bench scientist call on the customer.  Reverse that.  Give everyone more or less regular customer facing experiences. One learns quickly that the customer is not interested in our in-house turf battles.
    
8. Choose team members based on their co-operation proclivity.  Find people who want to work XF, promote them into your team.
    
9. Create an XF honest broker or ombudsman.  The ombudsman examines XF friction events and acts as conflict resolution counsellor (perhaps create a formal conflict resolution agreement).
    
10. Lock in XF co-operation.  This should be an explicit part of the vision statement.

Our approach "The Growth Game" is built on the premise that XF co-operation is critical to success.  We believe this is one of the chief reasons why our clients succeed and get great results.  See more details  click here

5 more assumptions that could limit your growth

Last week we wrote about assumptions that could limit your growth prospects. 

 

Today, I noticed that Marketing Magazine published 5 more possible misconceptions or myths about how consumers behave in the recessionary economy

 

Myth one: People turn to drinking at home in recessionary times

Myth two: Women still buy lipstick as an affordable treat

Myth three: All charities will suffer from declining donations

Myth four: Shoppers will abandon brands for own-label products

Myth five: Staying in is the new going out

 

You can see the explanation on their blog post here

 

http://www.marketingmagazine.co.uk/news/903493/Five-marketing-myths-consumer-behaviour-recession/

 

Remember

 

"One of the most expensive habits you can adopt in a business is to assume you understand something that is fundamental to your success"

 

We have published a short paper on the nine assumptions that we think could limit your growth prospects.  If you did not get the chance to read this last week.  then here is another chance to download our short paper on this.

 

click here to download the paper  - Nine Assumptions

 

Perhaps you have made some assumptions that you later regretted.  If you can let us know what they were, we would be really pleased to hear them.  Post them in the comments on our blog or send them to us by email

 

Are you solving customer problems or just getting emotional

It is amazing just how different the business environment feels just two months later and yet how similar are the big issues that we are facing and need to deal with in order to get more growth.

I have been struck on several occasions this week by how often marketers explanations of a brands success or failure does not discuss whether the business is really helping to solve customer problems and does not consider the real motivations that cause people to want to buy products and then how they go on to choose your brand.

Instead debate shifts to other subjects like how well the brand engages emotionally with their customers or consumers. For example Google success is analysed by Mark Ritson in Marketing this week (10th Sept page 21)and he makes many good points about how they have been successful, but never goes on to discuss how Google's dominance could be driven by the functional experience delivered to customers.   

Google have always delivered on the Power Attribute of "help me find what I am looking for". Their search engine strives to do a better job for customers than the others. They apply this principle not just to search results but also to the display of paid for advertising. If you have tried using their pay per click advertising, you will know that you cannot buy your way to the top of their list. They do not allow advertisers to be at the top of the page just by paying more money for the ad. The pay for click ads at the top of the list are the best available ads that deliver the best answers to search queries. In contrast Yahoo, Microsoft and Overture all have allowed advertisers to buy their way to the top of the list. Advertisers and search engine optimisers often appear on the press and on web forums debating the fairness or wisdom of Google's policies for advertisers and for producing search results. Their analysis often assumes Google wish to maximise short term revenues rather than enhance the user experience. But really advertisers wish to manipulate the system to their advantage. Despite the fact that advertisers are the paying client, Google resist this.  What Google seem to keep remembering is that consumers of the search engine are who they must please the most.

Mark Ritson also mentions that Marketing students in the 80's learned their brand management from Coke, whereas Apple taught the key branding lessons in the 90's and Google provides the best branding lesson of the noughties. At Differentiate we would agree with this but with a different analysis

• Coke taught us about Availability, Acceptability and Affordability
• Apple taught us about design led product innovation
• What Google are teaching us is about the value of being a truly customer led business that never loses sight of its mission to deliver the best customer experience.

So in amongst the doom and gloom that is being talked about, have your priorities changed? I am sure they have, but when your advisers tell you that you need to do more emotional engagement, check on the basics first. Remember if you are not solving your customers problems better than your competitors, your experience of the economic downturn will be much worse than that of our competitors. Find out if you are delivering on the Power Attributes, if you do this you will have an easier ride.

Start with the insight that people only buy things when the product or service helps them solve a problem that they have. The product most likely to be chosen is the one that does this the best. Emotional engagement or appeal may well draw customers to choose one brand over another when there is little difference between the choices, but it cannot persuade people to repeatedly buy things that do not offer good solutions to the issue. Emotional engagement tends to be stronger with brands and products that do the best job. It is hard to have a strong emotional engagement with someone who does not help you in some way.

How are consumers reacting to the downturn?

We know that "things are going to be tough" this year and maybe "even tougher" next year.  What should we do about it?  Opinions seem to range from predictions of doom to a rather cosy feeling that maybe we will see it through and it will not be so bad.

In this post we try to apply the principles of the Growth Game to analyse the situation.  Analysis "Growth Game" style adheres to three principles.

Stop worrying about the future, but do beware of the Black Swan (see blog entry).  Avoid expert predictions of what will happen and instead concentrate on strengthening your ability to compete and the withstand future unexpected shocks.

Actively seek and acquire empirical evidence to understand what is actually happening.  Again try and avoid the expert opinions.  They tend to offer qualitative observations and are tempted to make predictions.  Instead concentrate on evidence of things that are actually changing.  In particular look to gain insights about things that directly affect your business.   

Avoid "interesting" and focus on "actionable" insights.  That means start with the decisions you need to take and then go after the insights that will help you make them. 

We have been reviewing some evidence, observations and opinion about how consumers and customers will react to higher prices and lower disposable incomes.  I have grouped them into expert opinions, hard empirical evidence, insights and conclusions.

Example predictions/observations from experts

• The cumulative effect of numerous cost increases has now reached a tipping point.  Consumers are really starting to feel more vulnerable and this has become more pronounced in the past 6 weeks.
• With pressure on personal finances people will be less willing to pay a premium for "nice to have" things like more local food and food provenance; sustainable foods, organic and fair trade.
• There will be a back to basics trend, grow your own food, more family cooking, use basic ingredients rather than ready meals and less willingness to pay for convenience.
• Under financial and moral pressure consumers will find ways to reduce food waste (30% of food bought currently ends up thrown away).
• People will switch more of their shopping to discount outlets and local shops reducing both prices and transport costs.
• People will eat out less and consumers will switch to more take outs
• Concern over climate change will affect what people buy.

A lot of these statements make sense and some may well happen, but remember they are either subjective or a prediction.  Remember that experts may well understand what is going on but their predictions are usually unreliable.  Take a look at our Black Swan blog post to see the potential pitfalls of listening to expert predictions.  We recommend you look at the empirical evidence and come to your own view about how this will affect your business.

Empirical evidence of what is actually happening now (data to May 2008)

• The polarisation of markets continues whereby the strongest growth is happening at the top and bottom of markets.  The highest growth rates are in premium added value and low price segments whilst the middle gets squeezed.
• In Grocery the strongest growth % rates are in discounter stores (Lidl, Netto) and internet grocery deliveries.  The biggest absolute cash growth is happening in megastores situated out of town.  However, this is not a feature of the downturn.  These trends are long term and have not yet changed in 2008.
• What has changed in the downturn is lower sales in eating out, clothing, household appliances and furniture.  Other sectors including holidays remain resilient.
• OL share of total grocery has not increased for 5 years and as yet there is no sustained trend for own label to increase its share.
• The % of volume that is offered on promotion has gone up sharply and this is more about multi-buys than price reductions except in Tesco who focus more on price reductions
• In 2008 consumers are making fewer big shopping trips, shoppers spend per basket is down and there is less promiscuity between retailers.
• Consumers are claiming to be influenced more by a number of ethical issues, CSR, environment, fair trade, food provenance etc.  Anecdotal evidence of sales growth in products with these claims suggests this is true.

What insights can we translate from this (whilst avoiding predictions)

• Consumers are under financial pressure and are adjusting spending behaviour, but they are choosing carefully where to make the changes.  Indulgences and treats remain important, but consumers selecting which ones matter most (quality food and holidays seem to be doing well).
• The fundamentals of what consumers want (the power drivers of choice) remain the same in slowdown or boom.  The mega trends of health, convenience, naturalness/food provenance and ethical concerns remain in force and continue to be the main sources of growth in markets.
• There is no sign of a flight from quality.  There is some smart shopping to get and be able to afford the quality (promotions, discounters, local sourcing).

Translating insights into action

Reducing waste is an insight that could offer opportunities.  We know consumers are making more frequent shopping trips.  This could correlate with reducing wasted food.   The other area of waste that is an environmental issue is packaging.  May be helping consumers reduce waste could offer opportunities for innovation.

Nielsen recently quoted a survey stating that the top 20 innovations have all been about packaging, format and convenience.  As marketers are we smart enough to come up with packaging formats that reduce waste and have less environmental impact whilst still delivering the merchandising impact and consumer convenience?  It must be worth a try.

The Growth Game takes these guiding principles of getting and translating insights into the practical steps for growth. The process rests on empirical observations and measurement and is all about engaging the business team to create practical and credible ideas.  To find out more take a look here

How do you know what is important to customers?

Why is it that once we walk through the door of the business each day we are programmed to want customers to believe that what we are doing is the answer to their problems and that the features and benefits of our products will be important and useful to them.  Suddenly the world seems to be centred around the products and brands that we sell.

Somehow the corporate mission or our own ambition can blind us to insights we acquire every day.   As we spend our home and shopping lives being customers and making choices between products we can develop a good understanding of what it means to be a customer.  We can understand what is important and how trivial or important different decisions are to us.

I have been reading Nassim Nicholas Taleb's book, The Black Swan,

The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable

See our discussion  click here   

He has been reminding me how easily we can get persuaded by the "narrative" explanations that exist within the business.  How easily we tend to seek confirmation of what we would like to believe in the anecdotes and events around us.  How difficult and more challenging it is to rigorously assess the evidence. 

How do you deal with this?

As a successful business person you know you must cut through this and you should understand what is important to your customers.   

But how much time and money do you devote specifically to find out what is really important to customers so you can act on it?   And if you do spend time on it, what is the best way to discover what is important to our customers?

But you may be thinking that you already know what is important to customers.  Why should you invest more money and time in finding out what is important to customers.  Just stay with us for 2 more minutes reading this ezine and we will give you the chance to assess whether you have done enough.

What we have found

We have frequently observed in project after project and study after study is that successful business people do know a lot about what is important to their customers.  Especially sales people who are talking regularly with customers and marketers who choose to spend time listening to consumers.

We have noticed that the managers in the business tend to get it 80% to 90% right.  Which sounds great.  And would that we could get everything 80-90% right!  But the problem is the thing you miss out or get wrong is often the important attribute feature or benefit that could make all the difference.

Here are some examples from our own studies

Examples where managers think something is important but consumers think is less important than other things

Healthy snacks - less than 3% fat, not embarrassing to eat in public
Gardening - used by professionals, use less peat
Reinsurance - can offer independent advice, harnesses innovation.

Examples where consumers think something is important but managers did not spot it

Healthy Snacks - is a satisfying eat
Gardening - Is attractive to wild life, forgives me if I forget to water it.
Reinsurance - Flexible to my needs, fixes problems rapidly

How can you know what is important to customers?

Inevitably the most straightforward answer is to ask them and we would be the first to say that asking them in any form is better than not asking them.  But there are a few pointers that we have learned.

• We have found the concept of an attribute is valuable to help distinguish what is more important or less important
• Don't get too tangled up in whether the attribute is a feature a benefit an emotion or an image, it does not matter.  What matters is which attributes are important
• Ask the customers/consumers to help you prepare your list of attributes.  They will often come up with some attributes that you did not think of.
• A third party conversation is more likely to reveal the truth, if you have a relationship with your customers, this can get in the way of a truly transparent conversation.  On line or paper survey tools can also do this very well
• Plan the approach so you do not lead them to give you the answer you want to hear.
• Ranking attributes from 1-10 or 1-20 is more revealing than asking for a score on a scale where 1 is not important and 5 is very important.

Attribute importance is a fundamentally important part of helping our clients understand how customers make choices between brands.  The really useful concept of Power Attributes is based around what is important to customers and how you can differentiate yourself to them.

You can download our paper on this click here

You can see our website discussion on this click here

You can see our case study examples click here

You can see our blog posts on Power Attributes click here

King Canute, ITV, BA, Easyjet, Google and Zopa

I have lost count of the number of times I have sat in meetings where King Canute reigned and new ideas were put in the trash can because of the risk that they would substitute the existing sales in the business

Meanwhile, some-one else bowls a long, creates the idea and the sales substitution is done by new competition.  The traditional business is left struggling to catch up.

Remember when ITV dominated ad spending and took more ad money than anybody else?  But see what happened last year

An analysis for The Times shows that Google generated £327 million in advertising between July and September, compared with an estimated £317 million for all of ITV1 across the UK during the same three-month period.

10 years ago just think how inconceivable it would be to suggest that on airline selling low cost seats on the internet would be the dominant short haul airline out of Gatwick.  Now Easyjet dominate short haul rather than BA.

Who could have predicted that strangers would trade and trust each other through their computers.  Many retail markets declare their growth or declines and this often excludes substantial trading volumes on Ebay and Amazon and elsewhere that are not tracked by conventional stats.

Growth orientated marketers need to be looking for new ideas to stay ahead and not be afraid to compete with themselves and create new approaches to conduct their business. 

So what are the next markets that will be transformed or at least attacked ny New Internet models.  I cannot be sure these will succeed but they are all doing something very new that could transform the way markets work.

Savings and investments     http://uk.zoba.com

 

Book buying and borrowing   www.bookmooch.com

Travel guides and hotel bookings  www.world66.com

Book and media publishing     www.lulu.com

These are all ideas that have long legs and real depth.  They are not a retail concept slapped onto the internet.  They do things that only the internet can do by using information and communications.   The have identified a real customer problem and they are solving it.

Lulu - self publishing is so expensive

World66 - how to find out what normal people think (not massaged by journalists or promoters)

Bookmooch - what to do with my old books?

Zoba - banks tend to rip me off and cannot be trusted

Whether they succeed will depend on many things, not least how well they are executed and whether people are ready for these radical new ways of doing things yet.  But the traditional industries they are attacking have to decide if they want to end up struggling like BA and ITV and EMI or if they are going to embrace a whole new world.

For us we need to keep an eye out for new models that attack our business.  or even better stay one step ahead and spot the opportunity.  In the language of the Growth game, if you know the Power attributes of your customers, then you will know what they want that traditional businesses do not supply.  So go find out about your customers' Power Attributes

How much do you help your customers through the tyranny of choice?

Two experiences in the last 24 hours have  prompted me to think about why less is often more.   What a relief it is when a supplier, manufacturer or retailer helps you to find your way through the amazing choice of products and services that confront us these days.

The first was when I was in B&Q today.  They offer a massive selection in the core home and building products, but have more limited choice in the Garden Centre area.  As some one with a limited appreciation of gardening and in search of quick convenient solutions, this proved to be a huge relief.  Their range was not just limited but very well selected to cover all the task and needs and presented in a way that made it easier to choose.  Three powerful attributes seemed to make the range work.

1.  Limited to a size I could survey and understand
2.  Covered all the tasks and needs so there was something to address each issue
3.  Merchandised by task and clearly explained how to choose.

I have to say my foray into the bathroom and kitchens section was more dazzling and confusing as the choice expanded.

These thoughts on choice were forcefully echoed by some consumers in research groups last night who when examining the array fo products available in the category we were exploring, made a straightforward and simple appeal.

Please simplify our choice, tell us what the product does for me, what type it is and put a window on the front so I can see what is inside.  All this other technical detail can go on the back.

I am sure that offering people manageable choices and helping them choose can be turned into a Power Attribute and can be used to differentiate your offer wherever you do business.

So could you do more to help your customers through the tyranny of choice?

£4.99 or £5.17 or £4.83 - which is better?

I came across this paper today. 

Title:
Do Consumers Perceive Precise Prices to Be Lower Than Round Prices? Evidence from Laboratory and Market Data

Authors:
Manoj Thomas, Daniel H. Simon , and Vrinda Kadiyali

Here is the summary of the findings

In considering price tags, do consumers perceive round numbers to be larger or smaller than precise numbers of similar value? The authors examined the prices of 27,000 homes in South Florida and Long Island, N.Y., and their results showed that homes priced with a rounded number (for example, US$550,000) sold for about 0.73 percent less on average than homes with a more precise price (say, $553,505). Furthermore, the authors found that buyers perceived precise prices to be lower, and were therefore willing to pay an amount closer to the asking price than they were when the price was a round number.

My analysis
People tend to perceive precise prices as less than round prices of similar value. This discovery could have significant implications for buyers, sellers, and pricing strategists in any number of industries.

Marketers have long since believed that £4.99 is better than £5.00.  If you take the conclusions of this report, it may be that £5.17 or £5.42 is much better. 

Further to that, maybe consumers have been well trained to think that £4.99 is really just £5.00.  But what if precise prices like £4.87 or £5.13 are seen as better value? 

This research suggests that precise prices are seen as lower than rounded prices.  they also seem like they might reflect the real cost of the goods rather than being a rounded up to make more money.

Do you promote what you do well or what matters to customers?

If you want to discover the Power Attributes that drive your customers to choose your brand rather than the competition, you have to have start by generating a list of possible attributes.  When we help clients do this, we get the initial attribute list from talking to the customers.  You can only really rely on customers to think like customers.    However, the business team can think of attributes that customers cannot even begin to imagine, so we also get some valuable attribute ideas from the client management team.

We do this through our facilitated workshop approach.  These workshop events often attract a senior audience.   When we work with these knowledgeable and experienced managers we often find that the list of attributes is a list of features or things that the company does well.   But that is not always what we need.  We know that what will be powerful for the customer is a specific benefit or a special way the business helps the customer solve a problem. 

So for example the director of a financial services firm tells us that what really matters to the customers is "we give independent advice",  which we translate  into a more customer focused benefit "has independent advice I can trust", but when we talk to the customers, this is still not good enough, the most powerful attribute turns out to be "makes my business more successful" .

Time after time, we discover that the hot power attributes are all about the customer and the cold attributes are all about the business and the brand.

Experience this week brought this home to me and showed that directors may not always be the best choice when we are generating potential insights about what matters to customers.

In one of our current projects we are trying to discover some Power Attributes in a whole new category for the business.  We ran a workshop this week where we wanted to generate a list of candidate attributes that we plan to investigate with customers.  The investigation and consumer research will establish which attributes are most powerful in influencing customers to choose a product. 

The project is being led by the sales director who helped us bring a fresh approach. Rather than directors, he invited a number of the PA's and front line team to the session and this proved to be an inspired choice.  They seemed to think more like customers and in a more natural way.  As a result, we have come up with a list I am confident is much closer to what customers will suggest.  This means when we do workshops with the customers we are already part of the way there and we will be able to spend time discovering why the attributes are powerful rather than just generating the list.

Our ezine always aims to deliver practical advice, so I would suggest you can take two things out of this When you are thinking about what is important to your customers,

1.    always challenge yourself to think "is this about the brand or about the customer"  I can pretty much guarantee that if it is about the brand it will not be that important to the customer.
2.    go and ask some customers or at least a few "real" people around the office, they might just shed some insight on your thinking.

Our Power Attributes paper discusses how you can come up with this insight in more detail click here